This approach can also be integrated into various change-of-variable-based models, such as V AEs or normalizing flows.

The meta model seeks to answer "what would the outcome be if we were to deploy a different

Performative predictions influence the very outcomes they aim to forecast. We study performative predictions that affect a sample (e.g., only existing users of an app) and/or the whole population (e.g., all potential app users). This raises the question of how well models generalize under performativity. For example, how well can we draw insights about new app users based on existing users when both of them react to the app's predictions? We address this question by embedding performative predictions into statistical learning theory. We prove generalization bounds under performative effects on the sample, on the population, and on both. A key intuition behind our proofs is that in the worst case, the population negates predictions, while the sample deceptively fulfills them. We cast such self-negating and self-fulfilling predictions as min-max and min-min risk functionals in Wasserstein space, respectively. Our analysis reveals a fundamental trade-off between performatively changing the world and learning from it: the more a model affects data, the less it can learn from it. Moreover, our analysis results in a surprising insight on how to improve generalization guarantees by retraining on performatively distorted samples. We illustrate our bounds in a case study on prediction-informed assignments of unemployed German residents to job trainings, drawing upon administrative labor market records from 1975 to 2017 in Germany.

What sets this setting apart from traditional stochastic optimization is the difference between merely updating model parameters and deploying the new model.

Performative learning addresses the increasingly pervasive situations in which algorithmic decisions may induce changes in the data distribution as a consequence of their public deployment. We propose a novel view in which these performative effects are modelled as push forward measures. This general framework encompasses existing models and enables novel performative gradient estimation methods, leading to more efficient and scalable learning strategies. For distribution shifts, unlike previous models which require full specification of the data distribution, we only assume knowledge of the shift operator that represents the performative changes. This approach can also be integrated into various change-of-variable-based models, such as VAEs or normalizing flows. Focusing on classification with a linear-in-parameters performative effect, we prove the convexity of the performative risk under a new set of assumptions. Notably, we do not limit the strength of performative effects but rather their direction, requiring only that classification becomes harder when deploying more accurate models. In this case, we also establish a connection with adversarially robust classification by reformulating the performative risk as a min-max variational problem. Finally, we illustrate our approach on synthetic and real datasets.

Distribution variations in machine learning, driven by the dynamic nature of deployment environments, significantly impact the performance of learning models. This paper explores endogenous distribution shifts in learning systems, where deployed models influence environments and subsequently alter data distributions. This phenomenon is formulated by a decision-dependent distribution mapping within the recently proposed framework of performative prediction (PP) Perdomo et al. (2020). We investigate the performative effect in a decentralized noncooperative game, where players aim to minimize private cost functions while simultaneously managing coupled inequality constraints. Under performativity, we examine two equilibrium concepts for the studied game: performative stable equilibrium (PSE) and Nash equilibrium (NE), and establish sufficient conditions for their existence and uniqueness. Notably, we provide the first upper bound on the distance between the PSE and NE in the literature, which is challenging to evaluate due to the absence of strong convexity on the joint cost function. Furthermore, we develop a decentralized stochastic primal-dual algorithm for efficiently computing the PSE point. By carefully bounding the performative effect in theoretical analysis, we prove that the proposed algorithm achieves sublinear convergence rates for both performative regrets and constraint violation and maintains the same order of convergence rate as the case without performativity.

In performative learning, the data distribution reacts to the deployed model - for example, because strategic users adapt their features to game it - which creates a more complex dynamic than in classical supervised learning. One should thus not only optimize the model for the current data but also take into account that the model might steer the distribution in a new direction, without knowing the exact nature of the potential shift. We explore how regularization can help cope with performative effects by studying its impact in high-dimensional ridge regression. We show that, while performative effects worsen the test risk in the population setting, they can be beneficial in the over-parameterized regime where the number of features exceeds the number of samples. We show that the optimal regularization scales with the overall strength of the performative effect, making it possible to set the regularization in anticipation of this effect. We illustrate this finding through empirical evaluations of the optimal regularization parameter on both synthetic and real-world datasets.

Following the wide-spread adoption of machine learning models in real-world applications, the phenomenon of performativity, i.e. model-dependent shifts in the test distribution, becomes increasingly prevalent. Unfortunately, since models are usually trained solely based on samples from the original (unshifted) distribution, this performative shift may lead to decreased test-time performance. In this paper, we study the question of whether and when performative binary classification problems are learnable, via the lens of the classic PAC (Probably Approximately Correct) learning framework. We motivate several performative scenarios, accounting in particular for linear shifts in the label distribution, as well as for more general changes in both the labels and the features. We construct a performative empirical risk function, which depends only on data from the original distribution and on the type performative effect, and is yet an unbiased estimate of the true risk of a classifier on the shifted distribution. Minimizing this notion of performative risk allows us to show that any PAC-learnable hypothesis space in the standard binary classification setting remains PAC-learnable for the considered performative scenarios. We also conduct an extensive experimental evaluation of our performative risk minimization method and showcase benefits on synthetic and real data.